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An irreverent take on the macroeconomic environment. Dr Sam Chandan is President and Chief Economist of Chandan Economics and an adjunct professor in real estate and public policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Gas prices have more than doubled from their recession lows and are cutting into consumers' disposable income. The resulting headwinds may constrain discretionary spending growth.
Rental apartment completions fell to just 123,000 units in 2011, the second lowest level on record. Supported by strengthening fundamentals and preferential access to credit, construction activity is ratcheting up quickly.
The Greek parliament passed wide-ranging austerity measures on Sunday, paving the way for Eurozone finance ministers to approve the latest rescue package on Wednesday. An important step, it leaves the sovereign debt crisis' underlying drivers unresolved.
At the conclusion of a disappointing year, the expansion of the US economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2011. But the headline result reflects a large contribution from private sector inventory buildup that will not carry forward into 2012.
Data on job openings suggest that the market's upside can be found in generally lower-paying occupations, which support smaller increases in discretionary spending, and in areas that exhibit a weaker relationship with office demand.
The default rate on banks' multifamily and commercial real estate loans fell to 3.75 percent in the third quarter. While net CRE lending is still falling, the bank-by-bank analysis shows that institutions with stronger balance sheets are the first to reengage with borrowers.
The decline in the unemployment rate reflects the large number of Americans who exited the workforce in November and not an abrupt acceleration of net hiring. Private sector job creation fell short of the 2011 trend rate, with office-using employment remaining an clear point of weakness.
Although the apartment market benefits enormously from access to low-cost agency financing, the GSEs' broader third quarter results reinforce that this arrangement is unlikely to persist indefinitely.
Last Friday's employment report offered little evidence that firms are poised to accelerate the pace of hiring. Particularly in sectors related to demand for office space, payroll gains remain frustratingly slow, once again qualifying the near-term outlook for property fundamentals.
Even as measures of economic growth have slowed, inflationary pressures have been rising in the United States. If core inflation accelerates before occupancy rates rise, real estate's traditional inflation hedge will prove less effective in lagging markets. At the same time, the requisite tightening of monetary policy implies higher refinancing costs than prevail in today's commercial real estate market.